For oil and petrochemical producers, the biggest emissions risk doesn’t stay put. It slips through tailpipes, escapes from smokestacks, and rides along every mile of the value chain. It’s the invisible passenger in every barrel—the carbon shadow that trails each product long after it leaves the refinery gate, as shown in Figure 1. And that shadow? It’s Scope 3. Elusive, expansive, and essential to address.
While the Greenhouse Gas Protocol lists 15 Scope 3 groups, refiners find most emissions fall into just five areas:
1. Purchased goods and services, like crude oil
2. Transport of raw materials to the refinery
3. Distribution of processed gasoline
4. Processing products by downstream users
5. End-use combustion such as fuels burned in vehicles
Focusing on these categories provides the best chance to make a difference. In fact, the use-phase alone (Category 11) can make up over 75% of lifecycle emissions.
Scope 3 emissions are often blind spots: unseen, unmanaged, and underestimated. But for Bringing Decarbonization to Life®, refiners must move beyond the fence-line. This is where integrated modeling steps in.
Figure 2 shows how KBC's IP3EM allows refiners to model their operations alongside emissions and economic data. When paired with the GREET® model and the BT Index, this method helps teams:
This type of insight transforms Scope 3 from a vague concept into something concrete and manageable.
Reducing Scope 3 isn’t about doing less. It’s about doing things differently. One of the most effective ways to reduce Scope 3 emissions is to substitute fossil feedstocks with bio-based or recycled materials. Examples include:
Biogenic emissions, when sourced sustainably, are often seen as carbon-neutral, which significantly cuts emissions without losing output.
Targeting Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions in a complete decarbonization strategy brings unique opportunities to get the full benefit of alternate feedstocks.
Not every solution works for every site. To move forward, you need to balance technical, operational, and business realities. That means evaluating four core dimensions:
A decarbonization plan works when it’s driven by continuous, incremental actions and regularly reviewed in light of evolving conditions instead of long-term ambitions for 2050 or 2060.
A credible roadmap begins by establishing a clear baseline across Scopes 1, 2, and 3. From there, industry can rank high-impact initiatives, collaborate with suppliers, and model outcomes using real-world variables.
Appropriate intensity-based (i.e., emissions per ton of product) and/or absolute reduction targets can be defined or achieved with the clarity of a credible roadmap — and revisited as technologies, markets, and mandates evolve.
Let’s begin the journey by tracing the carbon trail from barrel to tailpipe and taming Scope 3 emissions via the right projects, powered by integrated modeling and collaborative action. That’s how you stop chasing the carbon shadow and start Bringing Decarbonization to Life.