Building a Refinery Roadmap to Net Zero: What Actually Works?

Mar 18, 2026   Written by Joris Mertens

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Refineries sit at the center of the energy system. They also sit at the center of the industrial emissions challenge.

A 150,000 barrel-per-day refinery emits roughly 200 tons of CO₂ per hour from on-site combustion (Scope 1). It emits another 20 tons per hour from purchased electricity (Scope 2). Globally, refinery emissions could reach 16.5 gigatons between 2020 and 2030.

Scope 1 and 2 are the emissions refiners directly control. Scope 1 emissions are direct combustion emissions generated onsite. Scope 2 emissions result from purchased electricity. Reducing them is the foundation of operational decarbonization.

The challenge: Cut refinery-gate emissions without sacrificing throughput, reliability, or margin.

Where Do Refinery Emissions Originate?

Most refinery emissions originate from high-temperature combustion processes required for conversion and separation.

Scope 1 emissions primarily come from burning refinery fuel gas and fuel oil in:

  • Fluid catalytic crackers
  • Steam methane reformers
  • Fired heaters and boilers

These emissions are not incidental. They are built into refinery thermodynamics. High-temperature heat is fundamental for conversion, separation, and upgrading.

Energy Efficiency: The Fastest Way to Reduce Emissions

Reducing production is rarely a viable decarbonization strategy. Refineries are designed to run at high utilization and efficiency decreases with utilization. Therefore, throughput reduction erodes margin faster than it reduces emissions.

Operational decarbonization focuses instead on reducing emissions per unit of throughput.

Improving energy intensity without cutting production is usually the lowest-capital, lowest-risk lever available. Multi-year optimization programs have been shown to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 10–20%.

Priority actions include:

  • Improving combustion efficiency
  • Reducing heat and energy losses
  • Strengthening cross-unit heat integration
  • Deploying real-time monitoring and energy management systems

Operational decarbonization begins with measurement. Enterprise-wide visibility into energy use and point-source emissions enables continuous correction.

Efficiency is the logical first step because it also is the only decarbonization lever that consistently improves both emissions performance and operating margin.

What Structural Pathways Follow Efficiency?

Carbon Abatement Strategies Figure 1. Carbon abatement strategies

Once optimization gains plateau, deeper reductions require structural changes in how heat and energy are supplied.

As shown in Figure 1, operational abatement clusters into three pathways:

  • Fuel substitution Modify heaters to burn hydrogen or ammonia instead of refinery fuel gas.
  • Electrification Replace combustion heat with efficient electric systems powered by low-carbon electricity.
  • Carbon capture Install post-combustion systems to remove CO₂ before atmospheric release.

All three pathways are technically viable. All three are capital intensive.

  • Hydrogen feasibility depends on production cost and carbon intensity.
  • Electrification depends on grid capacity and power carbon intensity.
  • Carbon capture increases both capital and operating costs.

Technology maturity alone does not determine feasibility. System constraints, utility balance, and capital discipline do as well.

Why Is Integrated Modeling Essential?

Integrated Process, Energy, and Emissions Model Figure 2. Integrated Process, Energy, and Emissions Model

Refineries are tightly integrated systems. Process units, hydrogen networks, steam systems, and utilities operate as one organism.

Decarbonization decisions cannot be assessed in isolation.

  • Fuel switching changes hydrogen demand.
  • Carbon capture increases steam load.
  • Electrification shifts power imports.

Figure 2 shows how the Integrated Process, Energy, and Emissions Model is used for refinery-wide modeling to evaluate decarbonization options within steam, fuel, and hydrogen balance constraints.

Without integrated modeling, investments risk shifting emissions or destabilizing utilities. They can also create operational bottlenecks that erode reliability.

Modern integrated models allow refiners to:

  • Simulate site-wide decarbonization scenarios
  • Track hydrogen, steam, and fuel balances
  • Compare abatement cost across competing pathways

Energy efficiency is typically modeled first. It delivers immediate reductions with limited capital exposure. Structural changes require staged, system-wide analysis.

The Bottom Line

Operational decarbonization in refining is not a single project. It is an integrated, staged capital strategy focused on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions.

  • Optimize energy intensity.
  • Deploy enterprise-wide monitoring.
  • Evaluate fuel substitution, electrification, and carbon capture.
  • Model the full system before committing capital.

Operational net zero in refining will not be driven by aspiration alone. It will be shaped by engineering feasibility and capital allocation.

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Source
Mertens, J., Mitchell, D., and Wicmandy, M. (2025). “Techno-economic metrics of carbon utilization.” In Industrial Decarbonization and the Energy Transition: Innovative Solutions for a Carbon-Free, Sustainable, and Clean Environment. Elsevier.