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Everywhere you look, AI is being sold as the silver bullet for refining - hyper-automation, autonomous plants, lights-out operations.
It sounds compelling. But in reality, for most European refineries it’s simply not realistic. The CAPEX needed to make “hyper-automation” possible would be astronomical. The cost of re-engineering plants to enable full automation would be enormous, and with margins under pressure, few refiners can justify such capital expenditure.
History tells us that most technology programs fail not because of the technology itself, but because of people. AI will be no different if people aren’t brought on the journey.
The conversation around AI often focuses on intelligence quotient (iQ), the detailed process, chemistry, physics, engineering knowledge, and real-time decision support that advanced algorithms can now provide. AI brings iQ at scale, and in many ways, AI is already better and faster at processing and advising on complex technical detail than any individual human.
But refining doesn’t run on intelligence alone. It runs on people, trust and behaviors - that’s emotional quotient (eQ). In Europe especially, people will remain firmly “in the loop” for decades to come. That makes eQ just as important. Success depends on how well we take people on the transformation journey: building trust, creating buy-in, and ensuring that operators, engineers, and managers embrace new ways of working because without eQ AI doesn’t stick.
At KBC, we see AI not as a silver bullet, but as a powerful enabler when deployed thoughtfully. The refineries that succeed won’t be those chasing the hype. They’ll be the ones that:
In other words, sustainable value in refining will come not from chasing the dream of hyper-automation, but from aligning iQ and eQ, machines delivering intelligence, people delivering change.
AI is not replacing the refinery workforce any time soon. The refineries that succeed will be those that combine technological intelligence with human engagement. That means recognizing that the future is not machines replacing people, but machines empowering people.
At KBC, we are working with clients to do exactly that: deploying AI in ways that deliver measurable results, while ensuring that change sticks because people are on the journey.